POPE LEO XIV
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The conclave to elect Pope Francis' successor officially opens on May 7, and the cardinal electors of the College of Cardinals are expected to vote one time that first day.
From May 8 onward, assuming someone wasn't elected in the first ballot — which has never happened in the era of modern conclaves — the cardinals will vote twice in the morning and twice in the afternoon until a new pope is elected. There needs to be a two-thirds majority, and if the total number of electors is not evenly divisible by three, an additional vote is necessary.
Since two of the 135 electors are not coming for health reasons, there will need to be 2/3 of 133: That's 89 votes.
If there's no new pope after three days of voting, the cardinals get a break of at least a day to pray, discuss the election with other cardinals, and receive a "brief spiritual exhortation" from Cardinal Dominique Mamberti, the Cardinal Proto-Deacon, said Vatican News.
But what time will this happen?
Every conclave is different, and with 133 people taking part in the election, the individual votes are probably not going to be speedy affairs.
Based on past conclaves, however, here's when a person can expect to see smoke rise from the Sistine Chapel's chimney (all times approximate):
First vote: 10:30 a.m. CEST (4:30 a.m. EDT/1:30 a.m. PDT/4:30 p.m. PHT/6:30 p.m. AEST)
Second vote: Noon CEST (6 a.m. EDT/3 a.m. PDT/6 p.m. PHT/8 p.m. AEST)
Third vote: 5 p.m. CEST (11 a.m. EDT/8 a.m. PDT/11 p.m. PHT/1:30 a.m. AEST the next day)
Fourth vote: 7 p.m. CEST (1 p.m. EDT/11 a.m. PDT/1 a.m. PHT the next day/3 a.m. AEST the next day)
How does voting work?
After the votes are tallied, they are then burned, which will signal the results of the election to the rest of the world.
If the smoke is black, there's no new pope, and the cardinals will vote again in a few hours or again the next morning.
But if the smoke is white, cancel your plans and sit down in front of the nearest television or live stream and wait with bated breath to see who is the new Successor of St. Peter.
About a half hour to an hour after the white smoke appears, Cardinal Mamberti will announce “Habemus Papam” (We have a Pope!), and the new Pope will give his first blessing from the balcony of St. Peter's.
How many ballots will it take?
Probably not very many. Or maybe quite a few.
Given Pope Francis' extended illness, in addition to the full 15 days between the pope's death and the opening of conclave, the cardinal-electors have had quite a lot of time to discern their votes.
Pope Francis was elected on the second day of the conclave, on the fifth ballot. It should be noted that while the resignation of Pope Benedict XVI was entirely unexpected, there was no papal funeral or other mourning process ahead of conclave, meaning the cardinal-electors were less distracted during the typical pre-conclave period.
Francis' predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, was also elected on the second day of conclave, but on the fourth ballot. Similar to the present times, he was elected following the extended illness of Pope St. John Paul II, and he was immediately referred to as "papabile" by the media, having long served in the Curia and known to be very close to John Paul II.
Pope St. John Paul II, who was elected just weeks after the election of Pope John Paul I's 33-day papacy, was elected on the third day of conclave on the eighth ballot. John Paul II was a surprise choice and came one of the shortest papacies in history.
That previous conclave, in August 1978, elected Pope John Paul I in just four ballots.
