Possible popes and pope-makers: A final fascinating list

On the eve of this conclave, the third of the 21st century, we present a list of 12 “papabili,” or cardinals who appear capable of reaching the quorum of 89 votes.

This selection is not exhaustive: In fact, we have identified nearly 40 papabili among the lists drawn up in recent days by Vatican experts.

Of course, no one really knows who will be elected until it happens. Nevertheless, familiarizing ourselves with some of the most prominent cardinals gives us a better chance of recognizing the man who will appear on the balcony accompanied by the words, “Habemus papam!”

A central figure in the Roman Curia, Cardinal Pietro Parolin was Secretary of State for almost the entire pontificate of Francis. A diplomat appreciated by foreign ministries of countries around the world in a time of high global tensions, he has a keen understanding of the Vatican administration, which Pope Francis attempted to reform.

In recent days, the Venetian native has faced criticism from both Francis’ followers, who fear he would put a damper on his predecessor’s momentum, and conservatives who consider him too closely linked to the pontificate.

While some cardinals point to a lack of charisma, they recognize him as a reassuring figure who would help the Church “digest” the previous pontificate and make its voice heard in a world at war.

Despite his youth, Pierbattista Pizzaballa has become a highly respected figure within the College of Cardinals. The Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, created cardinal in September 2023, is a pastor-diplomat working at the heart of a region that is the scene of many of humanity's tragedies.

This Franciscan, who has lived in Jerusalem for 35 years, previously headed the powerful Custody of the Holy Land and is fluent in Hebrew and English. Recognized for his administrative skills, he has gotten the finances of the Latin Patriarchate into the black, and gained acceptance among the Arab Christian community. On the land trodden by Christ, he works to protect the unity of the Christian churches, navigating the minefields of the volatile area.

This northern Italian with what is considered a sometimes abrasive personality — which could frighten Rome — has a global network of connections and high visibility: The Holy Land is the place where the eyes of all Christendom converge.

At 68, the former bishop of the small diocese of Gozo (a small island of Malta) has become an influential figure in the Church's government under Francis. As the driving force behind the “Synod on Synodality,” he led the vast project launched by the Argentine pontiff in 2021 to give the Church a chance to dialogue about its identity and future.

In line with themes dear to Pope Francis — welcoming migrants, presenting a more open Church — Mario Grech has enjoyed high visibility since his arrival in Rome in 2019. In the Vatican, all bishops and cardinals visiting ad limina have passed through the halls of the Synod Secretariat.

In Marseille, where he has been archbishop since 2019, Jean-Marc Aveline is a real “star,” even beyond Catholic circles. Appreciated for his pastoral sense and good nature, the 66-year-old prelate, born in Algeria, knows how to reach all audiences.

A champion of interfaith dialogue, advocate for migrants, and man of consensus, the Frenchman is a cardinal with his feet on the ground but also a skilled theologian. He likes to highlight the connection between the popes who have succeeded one another since the Second Vatican Council. He has become a central figure in the Church in France, where he was elected head of the Bishops' Conference in early April.

In Rome, he emerged as a unifying figure during the Synod on Synodality, during which the assembly entrusted him with responsibilities. He’s also a member of the powerful Dicastery for Bishops, which is responsible for appointing bishops around the world.

The 72-year-old Spaniard is one of the cardinals representing small Catholic communities living in Muslim countries. Archbishop of Rabat since 2017, the Salesian also worked in Paraguay for nearly 20 years and in Bolivia for three years. He embodies the spirit of missionary work and brotherhood among peoples, as Pope Francis wanted, which is how he ended up in Morocco.

Known for his humor and kindness, he has been president of the Conference of Bishops of North Africa since 2022.

He recently stated that one would have to be “sick in the head or in the heart” to want to be pope. However, he admitted that if it were a call from the Church, it would be difficult not to make himself available.

A Roman cardinal close to the Catholic lay Sant'Egidio community, Matteo Zuppi is very involved in social and humanitarian issues, as well as interfaith dialogue. Fluent in Spanish, French, and English, he demonstrated his skills as a mediator in the civil war in Mozambique, which led to an agreement in 1992. He has traveled extensively and internationally for “prayers for peace” and has built up an extensive network of relationships.

With a reputation as a “street priest,” the Roman-born Zuppi has been Archbishop of Bologna for 10 years. He has also been head of the Italian Episcopal Conference since 2022. Pope Francis entrusted him with a delicate mission: to attempt mediation between Russia and Ukraine to repatriate Ukrainian children. However, his mandate ended with mixed results. His international stature and closeness to the people could work in his favor.

This Carmelite priest, bishop of Stockholm since 1998, became the first cardinal in Scandinavian history in 2017. This polyglot has helped raise the profile of the Catholic Church in Sweden, where it remains a minority.

Very active in ecumenical dialogue, he welcomed Pope Francis to his diocese in 2016 on the 500th anniversary of the Lutheran Reformation. He’s also known as a bishop who takes a very firm stance on family ethics and the affirmation of Catholic identity, bucking the trend of secularization that characterizes Northern Europe.

The Catholic Church in Sweden has grown significantly in recent years due to the arrival of many migrants, but also thanks to the conversion of Swedes from Lutheranism and, in some cases, atheism.

Péter Erdő has been the primate of Hungary since 2002, and was created cardinal by John Paul II the following year. He’s the last of the cardinals appointed by the Polish pontiff to still hold an active pastoral office.

This defender of a traditional approach to the family received Pope Francis in his diocese twice, in 2021 and 2023. A canon lawyer by training, he’s known for his administrative rigor. He chaired the Council of European Episcopal Conferences from 2006 to 2016, which gave him strong relationships on the continent.

This experienced man could centralize the voices of a conservative trend that is still powerful in Europe, the United States, and Africa. But, his closeness to the government of populist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, particularly on the issue of welcoming migrants, could spark controversy.

Cardinal Tagle has been mentioned as a papabile for years; his name already emerged in 2013. The Bergoglian affiliation of this descendant of Chinese immigrants is evident. He has a charismatic and cheerful personality and is considered a good theologian. Educated in the United States and Bologna, he’s a specialist in Paul VI and the Second Vatican Council.

However, some think he might be too cheerful and a few voices wonder if he'd be able to take up the fight against sexual abuse by clergy.

Cardinal Ferrão holds important positions: president of the Episcopal Conference of his country (CCBI) and of Asia (FABC). Educated in Belgium and Rome, this multilingual Portuguese-born cardinal is well acquainted with Europe. He’s a theologian and pastor and is accustomed to delicate dialogue with the Indian authorities.

Although he participated in the last two synods, he remains little known in Rome. Still, he could benefit from Asia's unprecedented weight in the electoral college. On the other hand, his Indian nationality could be seen as an obstacle to the continuation of dialogue with China.

In 2021, the appointment in Rome of Lazzaro You as head of the dicastery responsible for the 400,000 Catholic priests worldwide was seen as a response to the dynamism of the Church in Korea. This enthusiastic cardinal converted to Catholicism in his youth, impressed by the radicalism of his country's martyrs. He studied in Rome and was involved in education in Korea before becoming a bishop in 2003.

A supporter of Francis' reforms, this close associate of the Focolare movement believes that the Church can fill the void created by secularization in developed countries, provided it does not ignore changes in society. He has been heavily involved in dialogue with North Korea. While his jovial personality is appreciated in Rome, some wonder if he has a lack of leadership experience.

At almost 70, Cardinal Prevost appears both as a man of experience and as a new figure within the Roman Curia. He was born in Chicago in September 1955 to a family of Spanish, French, and Italian descent. Prevost studied mathematics before entering the Augustinian Order, where he served as prior general for two terms, from 2001 to 2013.

The Pope then appointed him bishop of the Diocese of Chiclayo, Peru, where he had lived as a missionary in the 1980s and 1990s. In 2023, Francis called him to Rome as prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops and promoted him to cardinal. His experience and ability to bring people together were noted during recent synodal assemblies.

Now for a different list.

While it seems unlikely (to us) that the names below will be announced with the "Habemus Papam," these cardinals bring unique leadership to the College of Cardinals.

They are influential figures within the College who could have an impact on the outcome of the conclave (or be elected themselves).

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, a defender of the rule of law in the Democratic Republic of Congo, is one of the most prominent African cardinals in the Catholic Church today. He has been the president of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar since February 2023. Ambongo coordinated the African response to the Vatican's declaration on blessings for those in irregular unions, and was hailed for finding a way to combine fidelity to the pope and cultural sensitivities.

Since 2020, he has been a member of the very select C9 (Council of Cardinals) group that advises Pope Francis. This has enabled him to make the voice of a dynamic Catholic Church on his continent -- but also that of a continent exploited by developed countries -- heard in Rome.

A polyglot, the Archbishop of Luxembourg holds strategic positions within the Church and has a solid network of connections. At the head of the Commission of the Bishops' Conferences of the European Union between 2018 and 2023, he was chosen by Pope Francis to take on the very delicate role of rapporteur for the Synod on Synodality (2021-2024).

The pontiff made him one of his closest advisors by appointing him a member of the Council of Cardinals (C9). This reformer, who spent 23 years on mission in Japan, has developed a universal vision of the challenges facing the Church.

Cardinal Christoph Schönborn celebrated his 80th birthday last January and is therefore no longer eligible to vote. However, he remains a highly respected figure within the college. The man who spent 30 years at the head of the Archdiocese of Vienna assisted Cardinal Ratzinger in drafting the Catechism of the Catholic Church.

He also played a decisive role during the pontificate of Francis, supporting the Argentine pope's pastoral reforms when other Western cardinals complained. A member of the European aristocracy, he advocates for the Church to listen to the voice of the Global South.

The former archbishop of Boston is said to have received 10 votes in the 2013 conclave, but this time the American will not be able to hear his name in the Sistine Chapel as he has turned 80. For two decades, he has been one of the leading figures in the fight against sexual abuse by clergy.

Still at the head of the Pontifical Commission for the Protection of Minors, this Franciscan is trying to speed up the laborious implementation of protective procedures in dioceses around the world.

This Salesian from Myanmar is a former president of the Asian Bishops' Conference. He’s known for his defense of persecuted Catholics in Asia, particularly in his own country, Myanmar, but also in China.

Rather traditional on moral issues, he’s nevertheless a staunch supporter of the “synodal path” initiated by Francis and of many other projects launched during the Argentine pope's pontificate.

Known for his outspoken nature and quick humor, Cardinal Dolan is often portrayed as a conservative.

In a deeply polemical Church in America, his charismatic personality has found a way to bridge divides.

A member of the Salesians, Honduran Oscar Maradiaga is a well-connected man and an excellent linguist. Former president of Caritas Internationalis and of the Latin American Episcopal Conference (CELAM), the former archbishop of Tegucigalpa is said to have been one of the architects of Francis' election in 2013. The Argentine pope then made him one of his closest advisors in the reform of the Roman Curia.