Black smoke after long wait; no pope on May 7 ballot

Black smoke was spotted from the Sistine Chapel’s chimney at 9 p.m. Rome time on Wednesday, May 7, meaning the 133 cardinal-electors did not elect a new pope on the first day of the conclave.

This was entirely expected. The last time a pope was elected during the first ballot was in 1503. The shortest conclave in the modern era was three ballots.

Still, recent conclaves have been rather speedy affairs. Pope Francis was elected in 2013 after five ballots. Pope Benedict XVI was elected in 2005 on the fourth ballot.

Initial (probably unrealistic) estimates had put a possible smoke time as early as 7 or 7:30 pm Rome time, meaning the extra two-ish hours generated a lot of online chatter. Had a cardinal had a medical emergency? Did they elect a non-cardinal for the first time in centuries and now he needed to be called to Rome? And how long did Cardinal Cantalamessa preach?

Naturally, as the cardinals are "con-clave" -- behind lock and key -- there can be no answer.

But, various voices reminded that there are 133 of them this time around (the largest conclave ever) and as we saw during the individual swearing of the oath of secrecy, getting through the whole list is a lengthy affair. Perhaps "best estimates" of further vote times should be adjusted.

To be elected pope, a candidate must receive a two-thirds majority from the College of Cardinals – this year, that means 89 votes. The votes are burned following the election, creating black smoke if no new pope is elected.

The cardinals will vote May 8, a possible total of four times (twice in the morning and then twice in the afternoon.)

If there is a successful vote in one of the first morning or afternoon ballots, white smoke will be seen following that vote. Otherwise, there won't be smoke until after the 2nd morning/afternoon votes.