Leo XIV’s upcoming speech to diplomats will be tricky

For the first time since becoming pope, this Friday, January 9, Leo XIV will offer his New Year's greetings to 184 delegates of various states — including Palestine — who represent their countries before the Vatican. There will also be representatives of the Order of Malta and the European Union.

Traditionally, this speech (delivered in the Hall of Blessings) is closely scrutinized, as it sets out the Vatican's diplomatic priorities for the coming year.

Since his first speech from the loggia of St. Peter's on May 8, 2025, Leo XIV has placed peace at the heart of his pontificate. His address to the diplomats will therefore be eagerly awaited.

“The difficulty for him will be to take account of the current geopolitical balance without yielding to pressure to take sides,” said a Roman observer, pointing out that the Vatican remains constitutionally neutral.

The year 2026 began in turmoil with the arrest of Nicolás Maduro, president of Venezuela, by the US military. Leo XIV has already cautiously defended “the Venezuelan people” while calling for respect for “the country's sovereignty,” without mentioning either Donald Trump or Nicolás Maduro.

“Many countries are walking a tightrope after Maduro's removal, but the issue is also delicate in Rome,” says a diplomat stationed in the Eternal City. He points out that a few Venezuelans have key positions in the Secretariat of State, starting with Archbishop Edgar Peña Parra, Substitute of the Secretariat of State. Also, he notes, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Secretary of State, was apostolic nuncio to Venezuela from 2009 to 2013.

“The way in which the first pope of American origin approaches this issue will be closely watched,” he adds, especially since “political polarization in the United States is increasingly contaminating other countries.”

In fact, the political situation in the Pope's native country could hardly be more tense after the killing on January 7 of a woman in Minnesota by a federal ICE agent.

"This is not a pope who hides behind platitudes,” said one ambassador, pointing to his criticism of Donald Trump's plan for Ukraine in December 2025.

On that occasion, the pontiff warned against “a huge change” aimed at breaking apart the historic alliance between the United States and Europe.

At the Vatican, there has been an improvement in relations with Kiev, illustrated by the two audiences granted to Volodymyr Zelensky in July and December 2025. On the contrary, contacts with Russia have remained very limited in recent months, with some referring to “a cold wind from Moscow blowing over Rome.”

The Holy See's efforts are mainly focused on humanitarian issues, and on December 9, 2025, Leo XIV indicated that the Vatican is working “behind the scenes” to facilitate the return of Ukrainian children detained in Russia and the release of prisoners, while lamenting the slowness of the process.

Regarding the Holy Land, the Vatican is said to be “more optimistic” about the possibility of finding a diplomatic solution there than in Ukraine, even though the Pope has little room to maneuver.

The peace plan proposed by Donald Trump this fall was welcomed, with the ceasefire being seen as the first step toward any progress. However, in the corridors of the Vatican just as in the Holy Land, there’s talk of “many problems” that remain to be resolved.

The Holy See remains a strong supporter of the two-state solution, even though internally it’s recognized to be “very difficult to achieve.”

“But it’s the only solution for peace in the Holy Land,” they explain behind the Leonine walls.

The Pope's words will also be eagerly awaited on less publicized crises, such as those in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, and Mozambique.

“In these countries, where episcopal conferences play a major political role, the Pope has real clout to try to resolve very complex conflicts,” explains one diplomat. “In a way, this requires de-Westernizing the diplomatic approach,” he stresses — a development already initiated by Francis and which Leo XIV seems to be continuing.