What’s coming for the College of Cardinals?

The 120 cardinals who currently make up the electing college were created by the last three popes. The vast majority — 99 cardinals — were created by Francis. Benedict XVI created 17 of them, and only four remain from John Paul II, having been quite young when they were named cardinal. Those four are Cardinal Philippe Barbarin, archbishop emeritus of Lyon; Cardinal Péter Erdő, archbishop of Budapest; Cardinal Josip Bozanić, archbishop emeritus of Zagreb; and Cardinal Peter Turkson, chancellor of the Pontifical Academies of Sciences.

The voting college Pope Leo XIV inherited is marked by a historically low representation of Europeans, who now make up less than 37% of the cardinal electors. This is a sharp drop from the more than 50% at the end of John Paul II's pontificate, and the 52% following Benedict XVI's resignation. It's a clear sign of the internationalization championed by Francis, though this shift actually began in the mid-20th century under Pope Pius XII.

Asia, which received significant attention during the Argentine Pope's pontificate, has particularly increased its representation from this evolution. The number of Asian electors has doubled since 2013. Africa has also seen a slight increase in its representation, rising by two percentage points since 2013. North America, on the other hand, has seen a two-point decline over the same period.

As a trained canon lawyer, Pope Leo XIV has signaled that he plans to apply Church law strictly. Last fall, he warned the Italian bishops that he intends to enforce the canonical retirement age of 75. Will he show that same strict adherence to the 120-cardinal limit set by Paul VI? We will have to wait for the next ordinary consistory to find out, though the Pontiff hasn't announced one yet.

On the contrary, on the flight from Luanda to Malabo during the Pontiff’s trip to Africa, he said he has not yet “decided when new cardinals will be appointed.”

He was answering a question from a reporter about whether he would name a new cardinal for Angola. While he didn’t rule it out, he explained the “need to look at the matter from a global perspective.” This seems to indicate that he’s evaluating carefully all the factors involved in choosing new cardinals, including geography.

Since his election, the Pontiff has emphasized the importance he places on collegiality. He has offered concrete signs of his desire to work closely with other cardinals, both within the Roman Curia and in dioceses around the world. He'll call on their expertise during the upcoming consistory meetings on June 26 and 27.

Several names stand out for future appointments, including three new prefects whom Leo XIV recently named. These include his successor as head of the Dicastery for Bishops, Italian Archbishop Filippo Iannone; the new prefect of the Dicastery for Legislative Texts, Australian Bishop Anthony Randazzo; and the new prefect of the Dicastery for the Service of Charity, Spanish Augustinian Bishop Luis Marín de San Martín.

The Pope could also name several African cardinals, such as Archbishop Andrew Nkea, the current president of the Episcopal Conference of Cameroon, a country Leo XIV just visited.

Finally, several traditional "cardinal sees" lost their customary red hats under Pope Francis. Leo XIV might consider restoring the cardinal's biretta to the archbishops of certain major cities. This could include Archbishop José Gómez of Los Angeles, Archbishop Josef Grünwidl of Vienna, Archbishop Laurent Ulrich of Paris, Archbishop Richard Moth of London, and Archbishop Mario Delpini of Milan — or their eventual successors.

Even if he strictly respects the 120-cardinal threshold, the Pontiff will likely leave a significant mark on the College of Cardinals in the coming years. Currently, over 40% of the cardinal electors are 75 or older. This means that within five years, an equivalent proportion — or even more if the Pope decides to exceed the limit — will likely have been appointed by him.