Want to Know Who Will be the Next President? Follow the Catholics

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The beef between the Don and the pontiff — Pope Francis suggesting that it’s not very Christian to build a wall, Donald J. Trump responding that ISIS will attack the Vatican if he’s not in the Oval Office — has quelled, for now. But if Trump is serious about becoming President Trump, it may behoove him to show a bit more reverence to the man in white. After all …

The candidate who wins the Catholic vote has also won the popular vote in every election since 1972.

That’s four decades of picking the winner, according to
exit poll estimates, from Nixon to Obama. What makes the Catholic vote unique is its ability to mimic the trends of the American populace as a whole, says Robert P. Jones of the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute. Add that to the the fact that Catholics make up almost a quarter of the U.S. population — and have a solid history of actually showing up at the polls — and you can understand why the demographic is highly sought by campaigners.

…Catholics might be good predictors because their demographics reflect the general population almost perfectly:

• On race: In 2014, 41 percent of Catholics were Hispanic, compared to 38 percent generally.
• On education: 26 percent of Catholics held a bachelor’s degree or higher, versus 27 percent overall.
• On earnings: 47 percent of Catholics reported income levels under $50,000, compared to 55 percent overall.