Pope’s health at 1 month in hospital: Possible next scenarios?

The Pope is doing better and the medical reports are becoming more reassuring, but he is not immune to a possible relapse, even as he marks one month in the hospital (he was admitted Feb. 14). “There are still potential critical aspects, the Pontiff being an 88-year-old patient, and his clinical picture still being complex,” says a Vatican source, calling for “prudence.”

The last few weeks have shown that the situation is uncertain. On February 22, the Vatican announced that Francis had had a prolonged respiratory crisis and had had to receive blood transfusions for low blood platelet count and anemia. If the picture was already worrying, the one on February 28 raised the alarm even higher: the Pope had suffered a severe attack of spasms and vomiting.

The head of the Catholic Church has not yet been declared completely cured. The double pneumonia discovered more than two weeks ago and the polymicrobial infection are still in the treatment stage.

“It will be necessary to continue medical treatment with medication in a hospital environment for a few more days,” the medical staff said, without giving a date for his discharge from hospital.

When it becomes possible to return to the Vatican, several options are open to the 266th pope. First of all, Francis could take back the helm of the Church. We’ve seen him in the past make a spectacular comeback after health problems. In August 2023, he went to the World Youth Day in Lisbon, having recovered from a major intestinal operation less than two months earlier.

We also saw him embark on an 11-day trip to Asia and Oceania last September, at the age of 87 and with reduced mobility. His extraordinary resilience surprised many observers. “The Pope is a fighter; he will win this battle,” Archbishop Giuseppe Satriano of Bari recently told the press.

While the Holy See is always discreet, it's true that the Pope's convalescence could be long and require a reduction in his activities for some time to come. As in the last years of the papacy of John Paul II, the Argentine pontiff could choose to limit his appointments from now on, relying on his collaborators to replace him.

Pope Francis has said that he sees the papacy as a mission “ad vitam,” (for life) but he hasn’t ruled out the possibility of resigning in the event of serious impediment.

The question arises even more in the context of the 2025 Jubilee. The pontiff's official agenda — drawn up before his hospitalization — is full of jubilee audiences and celebrations with pilgrims through next December. The Pope's absence for health reasons would cause some disappointment among the faithful.

In this context, the recent announcement from the hospital of the convening of a consistory to decide on future canonizations — with no date yet set — has raised questions. Some assume that the Pope has left himself an open door and could use the occasion to step down; Benedict XVI used the exact same event, a consistory, to announce his resignation in 2013.

But this theory is implausible to many observers, who believe that if Francis were to consider leaving his post, he wouldn’t announce it in front of the cardinals. “He’d do it in front of the faithful during an Angelus or a general audience,” imagines a seasoned Vaticanist.

Pending developments, uncertainty remains. And most observers agree on one thing: that the Argentine pontiff is unpredictable.